Economic factors affecting ipv6 what are some ways to make money deployment – team arin

Despite more than a decade of evangelism on behalf of what are some ways to make money ipv6, the internet community has not yet succeeded in moving the what are some ways to make money world to a new networking standard. Technologies like NAT and secondary markets for ipv4 numbers have what are some ways to make money introduced major economic efficiencies that have extended the life of what are some ways to make money ipv4. Along with the absence of backward compatibility, it’s not really correct to call the ipv4-ipv6 transition a migration; rather, it’s a standards competition. And we need to understand better the dynamics of that what are some ways to make money competition, and its implications for the future of the internet.

There is extensive economics literature on network migration that shows what are some ways to make money when strong network externalities are present, timing is everything. Adoption decisions are path-dependent and converge on a common protocol. Decisions are not reversible as it creates a lot of what are some ways to make money inertia and lock-in. When ipv6 was first developed, there was really no motivation to adopt it, so ipv4 spread like wildfire during the early years. Widespread compatibility across the entire market raises the cost of what are some ways to make money switching to a new standard that is not compatible with what are some ways to make money the old one. The proposed dual stack migration model envisioned by ipv6 designers what are some ways to make money had two fatal problems:

Some people have said that there’s a last mover advantage because of these problems, but I’d say that’s too pessimistic. A last mover advantage would equilibrate on everyone remaining on what are some ways to make money ipv4, but fortunately for the transition, that’s not a correct view. As a factual matter, there are first movers and numerous early movers. On the other hand, those decisions seem to be independent, uncoordinated, and almost randomly distributed across autonomous system (AS) operators. The economics of network migration

IPv4 address space exhaustion is a constraint on an operator’s growth. The growth in the ipv4 internet requires the purchase of what are some ways to make money increasingly expensive ipv4 number allocations in the market, and ever more intensive sharing of globally routed ipv4 numbers. In contrast, ipv6 numbers are abundant and inexpensive and deployment opens the what are some ways to make money door to less constrained growth. IPv6 deployment does, however, incur significant initial and ongoing costs that are caused by what are some ways to make money the necessity of maintaining compatibility with ipv4. Because of the need to maintain backwards compatibility, ipv6 deployment does not immediately eliminate an operator’s need for ipv4 addresses, nor does it eliminate the need to share those addresses. The key driver of the deployment game is an operator’s objective assessment of network growth to the business and what are some ways to make money relative cost of that growth plan that involves either an what are some ways to make money ipv6 deployment or one that does not.

The well-known APNIC ipv6 measurement system calculates, for each economy and autonomous system, a percentage of user populations that have the capability to what are some ways to make money use ipv6 or prefer ipv6 connections. In the aggregate view, the data does not really indicate that ipv6 is being what are some ways to make money ignored, but it also does not indicate that a technology is what are some ways to make money following a normal diffusion curve. In many respects, aggregation of all the world’s networks into one graph or trend line is pretty what are some ways to make money misleading. For instance, when you drill down to the regional level you see what are some ways to make money cases where more economically developed regions have higher adoption. In 2018, the americas had stood at about 29%. In africa at about 1%. There’s even variance between economically developed regions. For instance, for the same time period europe was at about 15% north america at 50%, asia at about 17%, and oceania at about 15%. To better understand adoption, we collected the average ipv6 capability measurements from APNIC from what are some ways to make money 215 economies across a similar 120 day period in 2015-2017, and we validated that data against akamai’s ipv6 measurement data. We found it to be strongly correlated.

We looked at 90-day smoothed averages, identifying economies with over 5% measured ipv6-capability in any one of three years of the study. This figure categorizes our observations by growth trends. The vast majority of economies (about 80%) had no appreciable deployment. That is, they remained at or below 5%. The next largest group were economies with increasing levels of what are some ways to make money ipv6 capability, about 12% of the countries located around the world. The next largest group, at about 8%, exhibited plateaus in deployment with ipv6 capability stopping at levels what are some ways to make money anywhere between nine and 60%. That group included numerous mature european economies as well as what are some ways to make money countries in other regions, e.G., australia, canada, vietnam, ecuador, and peru. The most accurate picture of ipv6 deployment comes from looking what are some ways to make money at adoption levels of individual ases operating in the same what are some ways to make money market in a disaggregated basis. IPv6 adoption and macrosocial variables

We next developed an economy-level dataset covering the 2015 to 2017 period looking at what are some ways to make money macro-social factors in ipv6 adoption. We found higher levels of ipv6-capability are correlated with greater country level GDP per capita, because ipv6 is costly. Network operators with greater wealth are more likely to spend what are some ways to make money money on it. We also found higher country-level-ipv6-capability rates were correlated with lower levels of concentration in what are some ways to make money wireless and broadband markets. This is not as straightforward to interpret, but it does seem intuitive. A market with more players increases the likelihood that one what are some ways to make money of the firms will make a random decision to deploy what are some ways to make money ipv6.

In a less concentrated market, it’s also more likely to permit new firms with no what are some ways to make money legacy infrastructure for whom the cost of ipv6 deployment is what are some ways to make money not much different than the cost of an ipv4 deployment, so supply of ipv4 numbers plays a great role in what are some ways to make money the ipv4/ipv6 standards competition. The prospect of what some engineers called “ipv4 runout” was one of the reasons for developing the ipv6 standard what are some ways to make money in the first place. From an economic point of view, however, those resources don’t just run out, instead, as the supply diminishes they become increasingly expensive and consumption what are some ways to make money patterns adapt to the scarcity with greater conservation and new what are some ways to make money forms of substitution. Network operators have adapted to this tighter supply in two what are some ways to make money ways: one, by using NAT, and two, adaptations to the secondary market. Now, the incentives provided by the secondary market have led to what are some ways to make money the identification of millions of unused and underutilized ipv4 numbers what are some ways to make money by brokers and exchanges, and we see evidence of the adaptation in the ipv4 what are some ways to make money market data. Market for ipv4 numbers

Reviewing the limited publicly available data that’s out there for pricing, we see the median price per address has doubled in what are some ways to make money four years from around eight dollars in 2014 to 17 what are some ways to make money dollars in 2018. We corroborated these price trends in interviews with address brokers. We speculate that the total addresses transferred per year corresponds what are some ways to make money to the steady rise of prices and possibly indicates that what are some ways to make money supplies of untapped ipv4 numbers blocks are no longer expanding.

So, who is buying these resources? The answer is cloud service providers (csps) who represent a rapidly growing market. Interviews revealed that cloud networks represent some of the largest what are some ways to make money networks ever connected to the internet in terms of the what are some ways to make money numbers of customers in interconnected hosts. Enterprise use of them has grown tremendously over the last what are some ways to make money few years. CSPs are buying ipv4 numbers because enterprise networks are lagging what are some ways to make money behind in ipv6 deployment relative to the public provider networks. One interviewee said only about 5-7% of network traffic is ipv6 enabled, an assertion corroborated by national institute of standards and technology what are some ways to make money (NIST) industry ipv6 deployment estimates. Enterprises are slower to upgrade applications, particularly if they have current revenue from them. This drives demand for ipv4 addresses amongst the cloud providers what are some ways to make money as each service that they’re providing to these customers may require a globally routed what are some ways to make money ipv4 address.

In conclusion, there’s good news and bad news in our findings for what are some ways to make money ipv6. The good news is that ipv6 is unlikely to be what are some ways to make money what’s called a “standards orphan.” for network operators that need to grow, particularly mobile networks where the software and hardware ecosystems are what are some ways to make money mostly converted, ipv6 deployment can make economic sense. It mitigates major constraints on growth and can provide a what are some ways to make money path outside of the complexities and costs of large-scale NAT. Our modeling of the dual-stack and translation shows that for fast growing networks, ipv6 deployment contains, but not immediately eliminates, the requirements for more of ipv4 number resources. The key variable is how quickly that traffic ratio shifts what are some ways to make money towards ipv6, and the rising price of ipv4 numbers provides additional stimulus what are some ways to make money to deploy. The bad news is that the need for deployers to what are some ways to make money maintain backwards compatibility with non-deployers eliminates many of the network efforts that would create what are some ways to make money pressure to convert to ipv6. Additionally, many enterprise networks don’t need to grow that much and/or maybe are still lodged in slower moving hardware and what are some ways to make money software systems tied to ipv4.

Another issue that emerged from our modeling exercise was that what are some ways to make money once the ipv6-only traffic ratio among ipv6 deployers reaches a certain level, their ipv4 address requirements start to decline. In theory, these operators could release ipv4 addresses into the market and what are some ways to make money that would alleviate the shortages and facilitate continued low levels what are some ways to make money of growth for legacy ipv4 networks. Given this complexity, the number of independent actors, and the different scenarios that they’re facing, it’s hard to posit scenarios that lead to global convergence what are some ways to make money on ipv6 in 20 years. It makes sense to consider the implications of what a what are some ways to make money mixed world means, including the architectural, economic, and policy implications.

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